What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on where to set the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the TRY.


Historic Deviations and Their Outcome

March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!


December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.


October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.





My Forecasts For Today

Benchmark Rate 19



Today's Trade Plan

25 forecasts today. This is broken down here:-

23 forecast for the rate to stay at 19%
1 forecast for a cut to 18.5%
1 forecast for a cut to 17%

Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see!

Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs.



Tradable Pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

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Active member
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There was no deviation today. I feel there was a reasonable expectation of a cut today as TRY pairs strengthened considerably immediately after the data was released.
 
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