kaedesy1225
New member
The economy has deteriorated sharply due to the new corona disaster, and financial system instability has increased. Since last spring, a remarkable recovery has been achieved. Fiscal and monetary policy has guided the recovery. Consumption is booming with additional economic measures of $ 1.9 trillion, including benefits from the Byden administration, such as March retail sales up 9.8% month-on-month.
However, the economy is expected to slow down later this year. There are two reasons.
One is the structural reason. The unemployment rate improved from 14.8% in April last year to 6.0% in March this year, but most of the people who returned to work were "temporarily dismissed (layoff)". On the other hand, there are more people who have been "permanently dismissed" than in April last year. This is because the number of jobs involving people is decreasing, as society is becoming more remote due to the corona disaster and the retail industry is failing one after another.
The transition period to find a new job is expected to be about two years, during which the "jobless recovery" aspect of the first Clinton administration is likely to intensify. Corporate performance will improve, but macroeconomic recovery may slow.
The other is financial reasons. The Biden administration is hitting a financial camphor that can be called a balamaki. In the background, the aim is to increase the support of white people in the middle and low income groups who supported Mr. Trump and prevent his reinstatement. However, the large-scale behavior cannot be continued forever, and one day a "fiscal cliff" will occur. Prices are rising, and fiscal spending is becoming more difficult.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is calling for the introduction of an international minimum corporate tax rate, which is also an environment for raising taxes to reduce disparities in the country. He has announced a $ 2 trillion economic measure (infrastructure investment plan) funded by tax increases for the wealthy and businesses, but it is a long-term measure over eight years. These fiscal changes are likely to affect the economy after the second half of the year.
However, it is not a situation that will lead to a recession. Real GDP (gross domestic product) growth will slow to around 4-5% annually in the second half of the year, and will be around 6-7% for the full year 2021.
However, the economy is expected to slow down later this year. There are two reasons.
One is the structural reason. The unemployment rate improved from 14.8% in April last year to 6.0% in March this year, but most of the people who returned to work were "temporarily dismissed (layoff)". On the other hand, there are more people who have been "permanently dismissed" than in April last year. This is because the number of jobs involving people is decreasing, as society is becoming more remote due to the corona disaster and the retail industry is failing one after another.
The transition period to find a new job is expected to be about two years, during which the "jobless recovery" aspect of the first Clinton administration is likely to intensify. Corporate performance will improve, but macroeconomic recovery may slow.
The other is financial reasons. The Biden administration is hitting a financial camphor that can be called a balamaki. In the background, the aim is to increase the support of white people in the middle and low income groups who supported Mr. Trump and prevent his reinstatement. However, the large-scale behavior cannot be continued forever, and one day a "fiscal cliff" will occur. Prices are rising, and fiscal spending is becoming more difficult.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is calling for the introduction of an international minimum corporate tax rate, which is also an environment for raising taxes to reduce disparities in the country. He has announced a $ 2 trillion economic measure (infrastructure investment plan) funded by tax increases for the wealthy and businesses, but it is a long-term measure over eight years. These fiscal changes are likely to affect the economy after the second half of the year.
However, it is not a situation that will lead to a recession. Real GDP (gross domestic product) growth will slow to around 4-5% annually in the second half of the year, and will be around 6-7% for the full year 2021.
